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RTÉ: Ryanair 'will not levy a fuel surcharge'. TheJournal and the Independent: fares will rise 'materially'

Ryanair's chief executive gave one press conference in London. An Irish broadcaster led with his promise of no fuel surcharge. Two other outlets led with his warning that fares will rise next summer.

Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year
Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year as published by TheJournal.ie · seen at TheJournal.ie
Anglosphere Ireland United Kingdom

The split. On 23 September, Michael O'Leary spoke to reporters in London. RTÉ News led with his promise that Ryanair "will not levy a fuel surcharge". TheJournal.ie and The Independent led with his warning: he has "no doubt" fares will rise next year.

RTÉ News TheJournal.ie The Independent
Leads with no surcharge fares rising fares rising
This year's hedge ($80) — yes yes
This year's oil bill (six billion) — no yes
Next year's bill (7.5 billion) — yes yes
Names the war as a cause no no yes

One account, not two. TheJournal.ie and The Independent carry near-identical text and the same PA photographs. Count them as one wire account.

One voice. All three reports quote only O'Leary. None quotes a rival airline, a passenger group or an analyst. RTÉ says he predicted rivals "may" add surcharges, but it names none.

The figures are his. He said Ryanair is hedged this year at about $80 a barrel. If it hedges next year at $100, he said, its oil bill rises 25%, from six billion to seven and a half billion. Neither report says which currency.

What is not settled - How much fares will rise. The Independent quotes him: "The question is by how much." - Whether any rival adds a surcharge, and which one. - What price Ryanair actually hedges at for 2027. The $100 figure is his assumption.

What this is about. Ryanair, a large low-fares airline, says higher oil prices will push up the price of flights next summer.

How it got here. Jet fuel is made from crude oil, so when oil rises, flying costs more. The Middle East supplies a large share of the world's oil. War in the region has pushed prices up. The Independent names "the Iran war" as a cause. TheJournal.ie says oil went above $100 a barrel earlier this month for the first time since July, "after the latest round of strikes in the conflict". Neither says who carried out the strikes.

Hedging. Airlines buy much of their fuel months ahead at a fixed price. This is called hedging. It protects them from sudden price jumps, but only until the contracts run out. O'Leary says Ryanair is hedged this year at about $80 a barrel. Next year's fuel has to be bought at today's higher prices.

Surcharge or fare. An airline can pass costs on in two ways. It can add a separate fuel surcharge to the ticket, or it can raise the fare itself. O'Leary rules out the first and predicts the second.

The actors. Ryanair is based in Dublin and flies across Europe. Ireland and the UK are among its biggest markets. Michael O'Leary has been its chief executive since 1994. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the airlines' global trade body, and it publishes fuel prices.

What is at stake. Summer flights are a large cost for households in Ireland and the UK, where many families holiday abroad. Ryanair has warned that some rivals will "struggle to maintain capacity or even survive" this winter if oil stays high. Fewer seats would also push fares up.

Where it stands. Ryanair has already cut its passenger target for next year. IATA says the average price of jet fuel rose 7.4% last week, to $194.90 a barrel. No fare rise has been announced.

What is being argued about

  • Whether Ryanair's fares will rise next year, and by how much
  • A fuel surcharge versus higher fares
  • How fuel hedging delays the cost of oil
  • Rival airlines under pressure if oil stays high
One press conference, two messagesSide by side
OutletWhat it led withFigures given
RTÉ NewsRyanair "will not levy a fuel surcharge"; rivals "may"None
TheJournal.ie"No doubt" fares will rise, "significantly upward"$80 hedge, 25% rise, 7.5 billion; not this year's six billion
The Independent"No doubt" fares will rise, amid "the Iran war"$80 hedge, 25% rise, six billion to 7.5 billion
TheJournal.ie and The Independent carry near-identical wire text.
Sources R RTÉ News
Centre estimate · not a score
RTÉ News 🇮🇪IE · digital · PUBLIC Ryanair pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at RTÉ News → What we have measured Abstraction as the actor the dispute acts and no one in it is named ×1Account taken as default the police description of the crowd as 'hostile' is carried with no other account ×1Accuracy the Slovenia entry in the country list repeats Austria's name ×1Active voice offender Donaldson is named as the one who did the abuse, in the active voice. ×1 from 2361 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Ryanair's oil bill, as O'Leary projects itChart
O'Leary's own projection, if next year's fuel is hedged at $100 a barrel. The reports do not say which currency.
Sources The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
The bias in this coverageBias

Same press conference, two headlines

Two reports lead with fares rising. One leads with the promise of no fuel surcharge. All three quote the chief executive and nobody else: no passenger group, rival airline or analyst.

A 25% rise, with and without its base

One report gives both the current fuel bill of six billion and next year's seven and a half billion. The other gives only next year's figure, so a reader cannot check the 25% rise.

Scored without the mastheads. Where the two passes differ, both are kept.
Sources T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → R RTÉ News
Centre estimate · not a score
RTÉ News 🇮🇪IE · digital · PUBLIC Ryanair pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at RTÉ News → What we have measured Abstraction as the actor the dispute acts and no one in it is named ×1Account taken as default the police description of the crowd as 'hostile' is carried with no other account ×1Accuracy the Slovenia entry in the country list repeats Austria's name ×1Active voice offender Donaldson is named as the one who did the abuse, in the active voice. ×1 from 2361 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →

Claims and verdicts

unverified Ryanair will not add a fuel surcharge to fares.
Only RTÉ News reports O'Leary's pledge that the airline 'will not levy a fuel surcharge'. The other two reports do not mention a surcharge.
Checked against 1 source:
R RTÉ News
Centre estimate · not a score
RTÉ News 🇮🇪IE · digital · PUBLIC Ryanair pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at RTÉ News → What we have measured Abstraction as the actor the dispute acts and no one in it is named ×1Account taken as default the police description of the crowd as 'hostile' is carried with no other account ×1Accuracy the Slovenia entry in the country list repeats Austria's name ×1Active voice offender Donaldson is named as the one who did the abuse, in the active voice. ×1 from 2361 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
unverified Michael O'Leary said he has 'no doubt' air fares will rise next year because of higher oil prices.
TheJournal.ie and The Independent carry the quote, but their texts are near-identical and both use PA photographs, so they count as one account. RTÉ News reports the same press conference but does not carry this quote.
Checked against 3 sources:
T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → R RTÉ News
Centre estimate · not a score
RTÉ News 🇮🇪IE · digital · PUBLIC Ryanair pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at RTÉ News → What we have measured Abstraction as the actor the dispute acts and no one in it is named ×1Account taken as default the police description of the crowd as 'hostile' is carried with no other account ×1Accuracy the Slovenia entry in the country list repeats Austria's name ×1Active voice offender Donaldson is named as the one who did the abuse, in the active voice. ×1 from 2361 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
unverified If Ryanair hedges next year's fuel at $100 a barrel, its oil bill will rise 25%, from 6 billion to 7.5 billion.
This is O'Leary's own projection, and it comes from one wire account. The Independent gives the 6 billion starting figure, while TheJournal.ie leaves it out and gives only the 7.5 billion total.
Checked against 2 sources:
The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →

Who wrote it

R Rosie Shead The Independent
What the bias passes found in their reporting
Cause stated flat names the Iran war as a cause in the outlet's own voice×1
Figure with its base gives this year's fuel bill before the increase×1
Stated cause names the war as a cause of higher fares×1
Claims we checked that rest on their reporting
2 unverified
From 31 reports we hold under this byline, at The Independent. Two independent readings, each made without the masthead, a quote attached to every tag. A record, never a rating. Their full record →
The bylines on the reports this story is built from. Hover one for what our passes have measured on their reporting. · 2 reports we hold carry no byline — we do not invent one.

Coverage, outlet by outlet

T TheJournal.ie
Centre estimate · not a score
TheJournal.ie 🇮🇪IE · digital · Michael O'Leary says he has 'no doubt' air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at TheJournal.ie → What we have measured Accuracy of attribution The report calls the Tánaiste the Taoiseach partway through. That puts his words under another office. ×1Accusation carried without a reply a charge against a named party, no answer from it in the text held ×1Actor labelling calls the accusers 'opposition parties' when the named accuser is the deputy First Minister ×1Actor mislabelled The first line calls the accusers 'opposition parties', but the accuser quoted is the DUP deputy First Minister, who sits in the same executive ×1 from 2218 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → —
Converts his dollar figures into euro for Irish readers: $80 (€70) and $100 (€87) a barrel.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more. Earlier this month, oil prices rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July after the latest round of strikes in the conflict. O’Leary told reporters in London that flight prices were “only going one way”, which is “significantly upward”. Ryanair has already cut its air traffic target for next year on the back of efforts to use less unhedged fuel over the winter period. Chief executive Michael O'Leary points to a graph during a business update (Yui Mok/PA) PA PA Speaking at a press conference today, O’Leary said:
Figure without its base: gives next year's bill but leaves out this year's — “If it goes up by 25%, that’s seven-and-a-half billion next year.”
Currency conversion: adds euro amounts for Irish readers — “We’re essentially hedged this year at about $80 (€70) a barrel.”
Who is named as acting: strikes with no actor named, and the conflict not named — “Earlier this month, oil prices rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July after the latest round of strikes in the conflict.”
Figure without its base: gives next year's fuel bill but leaves out this year's six billion — “If it goes up by 25%, that’s seven-and-a-half billion next year.”
Read it at TheJournal.ie → https://www.thejournal.ie/ryanair-flight-prices-rising-7171164-Sep2026/
The Independent
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Independent 🇬🇧UK · digital · independent Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at The Independent → What we have measured Accused party response Russia's side is reported as no comment. ×1A company statement about itself, taken as a "reveals" rather than "says", for a company's account of its own product ×1A count stated flat four crimes is given as a settled number in the headline, with no court, charge or jurisdiction attached ×1Actor named No actor named for the cut-short or for the clashes ×1 from 20313 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → — independent
The only report giving this year's oil bill of six billion, and O'Leary's line "The question is by how much." In its own voice, it names the Iran war as a cause.
News Business Ryanair boss says he has ‘no doubt’ air fares will increase next year Michael O’Leary told reporters in London that flight prices were going ‘significantly upward’. Rosie Shead Wednesday 23 September 2026 16:04 BST Bookmark Bookmark popover Removed from bookmarks Close popover open image in gallery Ryanair has already cut its air traffic target for next year (Nick Ansell/PA) (PA Archive) Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Membership today. Join today Already
Cause stated flat: names the Iran war as a cause in the outlet's own voice — “amid the surging price of oil and the Iran war”
Figure with its base: gives this year's fuel bill before the increase — “Our oil bill this year is six billion.”
Stated cause: names the war as a cause of higher fares — “amid the surging price of oil and the Iran war”
Read it at The Independent → https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/ryanair-london-michael-o-le…
R RTÉ News
Centre estimate · not a score
RTÉ News 🇮🇪IE · digital · PUBLIC Ryanair pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at RTÉ News → What we have measured Abstraction as the actor the dispute acts and no one in it is named ×1Account taken as default the police description of the crowd as 'hostile' is carried with no other account ×1Accuracy the Slovenia entry in the country list repeats Austria's name ×1Active voice offender Donaldson is named as the one who did the abuse, in the active voice. ×1 from 2361 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → — PUBLIC
The only report on the pledge of no fuel surcharge, and on his prediction that rivals may add one.
Ryanair's O'Leary pledges not to hit passengers with fuel surcharge Updated / Wednesday, 23 Sep 2026 15:18 Getty Ryanair's group CEO Michael O'Leary Ryanair group CEO Michael O'Leary has said the airline "will not levy a fuel surcharge" despite higher jet fuel prices, but predicted rivals will do so next summer and forecast more European consolidation as a result of the elevated costs. Global airlines have struggled with the spiralling cost of jet fuel, with airBaltic the latest to announce it was entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. Meanwhile, Ryanair cut its forecast for passengers fl
Headline angle: leads with the pledge of no surcharge, not with rising fares — “the airline "will not levy a fuel surcharge"”
Unattributed claim about rivals: the rivals are not named and do not respond — “though he predicted rivals may do so”
Unnamed parties: rivals said to be likely to add surcharges, none named — “though he predicted rivals may do so”
Read it at RTÉ News → https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0923/1592671-ryanairs-boeing-orde…
Checked, didn’t cover
T The Irish Times
Centre estimate · not a score
The Irish Times 🇮🇪IE · digital · No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor framing The release is framed as a joint agreement, with no pressure mentioned ×1Actor named Names the residents as the ones who blocked the road ×1Actor named killers named as 'loyalist gunmen'; verb 'shot dead' ×1With no actor named construction no actor named for the theft or the driving in the standfirst ×1 from 1358 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → R RNZ
Centre estimate · not a score
RNZ 🇳🇿NZ · digital · PUBLIC No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Headline against body headline claims a 20-year decline reversed; the first line of the body reports a new low in reading ×1Headline against body headline claims a turnaround; the text carries a record low and puts it on boys ×1 from 2328 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → ABC News (Australia)
Centre estimate · not a score
ABC News (Australia) 🇦🇺AU · public broadcaster · public-service No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor label and hedge The same man is called 'far-right' and named by his legal name. The act is hedged with 'allegedly', where the longer report states it flat. ×1A different count, stated flat one dead and 140 missing, unattributed, earliest of the four ×1Affected counted The only report to count the local people affected ×1Are the dead named one of the dead named, through a relative at the hospital ×1 from 4667 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Guardian
Centre-left estimate · not a score
The Guardian 🇬🇧UK · newspaper · independent No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named Denial in the passive voice, with no one named as the person who dismissed it ×1Actor named names Israel as acting and states the death toll flat, with no source ×1Actor named Ireland named as the side that ended the conference ×1Allegation omitted the police statement is cut with an ellipsis where the other two reports carry the controlling or coercive behaviour allegation ×1 from 10552 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → C CBC News
Centre-left estimate · not a score
CBC News 🇨🇦CA · public broadcaster · public-service No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Asserted vs attributed the measure is attributed to the three governments; the territory is called occupied in the outlet's own voice ×1Attribution kept in the headline the sourcing travels with the claim into the headline ×1Figure rounded in the headline more than 600 in the headline; the body sources it to a flight-tracking site ×1How the sourcing is hedged the claim is hedged to an unnamed newspaper in both headline and body; the reporting is not held by this report ×1 from 2730 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Silence is recorded, not inferred — each of these was read when we built this story and carried nothing on this event.
We could not read these
BBC News
Centre estimate · not a score
BBC News 🇬🇧UK · public broadcaster · public-service No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Dating and attribution 'It was not until Tuesday' is a judgement about delay, not a date. No other report we hold comments on how long the German finding took. ×1How hard the claim is stated Headline says the UN voted to adopt and replace; the last sentence of the report says the vote is non-binding ×1How hard the claim is stated The qualification arrives in the last sentence and is immediately overridden by an effect the report gives no source for. ×1Which figure is used States the replacement as done — the Assembly voted to replace the map — where the resolution urges states to use a different projection. ×1 from 473 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Daily Telegraph
Right estimate · not a score
The Daily Telegraph 🇬🇧UK · newspaper · independent No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Nothing scored yet. We do not carry a rating for any outlet — only what we have measured from published text. Outlet profile in The AI Times → The Times
Centre-right estimate · not a score
The Times 🇬🇧UK · newspaper · independent No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Nothing scored yet. We do not carry a rating for any outlet — only what we have measured from published text. Outlet profile in The AI Times →
These are must-cite outlets for this desk that we did not manage to read when we built this story. That is a gap in our reach, not a silence on their part, and it is not evidence of anything about this story.

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