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Espreso, via Reuters: Russia fires RM48Us to save better missiles for winter. Obozrevatel: to drain Ukraine's interceptors

Two Ukrainian outlets give two reasons for the same cheap missile. Espreso names the analyst behind its reason; Obozrevatel names no one. Neither report carries Russia's own account.

Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters
Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters as published by Espreso TV · seen at Espreso TV
Russia & Eurasia Ukraine Russia

The missile. The RM48U was built as a target for air-defence drills. Espreso, relaying Reuters, says Russia began firing it in large numbers as a weapon this summer.

The count. Military analysts at Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office told Reuters it made up more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine in July and early August. By their estimate, it misses by 300 metres on average. We hold no second count.

The dead. Ukrainian investigators say an RM48U hit the Kvitneva railway platform near Brovary on 4 August. Eight people waiting for a train were killed. No report we hold names them.

Why fire it — two answers:

Outlet Aim given Who says so
Espreso (via Reuters) Save Iskanders, KN-23s and Zircons for a winter campaign Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI, London
Obozrevatel Drain Ukraine's stock of interceptors No one named

The two do not rule each other out.

Output. Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) says Russia plans to make 480 this year, up from 200 last year. The Institute for the Study of War estimates Moscow holds about 100 Iskanders and 400 RM48Us.

Not settled. What Russia intends: neither report carries a Russian account. The share of launches and the accuracy figure come from Ukrainian prosecutors alone. The production figure comes from Ukraine's intelligence alone. Obozrevatel's report reached us as a single sentence.

What this is about. Russia is firing a cheap missile, built as a practice target, at Ukraine, and outlets disagree on why.

How it got here. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and backed armed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, in Ukraine's east. That is when the war began. In February 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion. Since then it has struck Ukrainian cities, power plants and railways with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Every winter since 2022, Russian strikes have hit Ukraine's power grid.

Ballistic missiles are the hardest of these to stop. They come down at high speed on a steep arc. Russia's main one is the Iskander. Espreso's report also names the North Korean KN-23 and the hypersonic Zircon.

The actors. Russia fires the missiles. Ukraine defends against them. Espreso's report says the US-made Patriot system is the only weapon Ukraine has that can shoot ballistic missiles down. Ukraine's Western partners supply the Patriot interceptors; Ukraine does not make them. A Ukrainian company is testing a cheaper interceptor of its own.

What is at stake. A missile that is cheap to make can still force Ukraine to spend a costly interceptor on it, or let it through. Either way, the size of each side's stock matters. If Russia is holding its more accurate missiles back, the open question is what they will be aimed at when the weather turns cold.

Where it stands. Espreso reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more Patriot deliveries straight after the 4 August strike near Kyiv, and that no new batches are expected soon. Neither report we hold carries a Russian statement on the RM48U.

What is being argued about

  • Why Russia is firing a training target missile as a weapon
  • Whether cheap missiles are meant to exhaust Ukraine's Patriot interceptors
  • The 4 August strike on the Kvitneva platform near Brovary
  • How many RM48Us and Iskanders Russia holds and makes
Why fire a practice missile? Two answersSide by side
OutletWhat it says the RM48U is forAttributed?
Espreso (relaying Reuters)Lets Russia keep Iskanders, KN-23s and Zircons for a winter campaignYes: Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI
ObozrevatelDrains Ukraine's stock of interceptor missilesNo: stated as fact
Neither report carries a Russian account of what the missile is for.
Sources E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
O Obozrevatel
Centre-right estimate · not a score
Obozrevatel 🇺🇦UA · digital · Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Obozrevatel → What we have measured Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1 from 9944 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
RM48U against Iskander: what Russia holds and makesChart
The stocks are an Institute for the Study of War estimate. The output figures come from Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). Both are estimates, relayed by Reuters through Espreso.
Sources E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
The bias in this coverageBias

Two purposes, one attributed

One report says the missiles save better ones for winter and names the analyst who says so. The other says they drain Ukraine's interceptors, in its own voice. Every figure we hold comes from Ukrainian or Western sources, and no Russian response is carried.

Scored without the mastheads. Where the two passes differ, both are kept.
Sources E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
O Obozrevatel
Centre-right estimate · not a score
Obozrevatel 🇺🇦UA · digital · Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Obozrevatel → What we have measured Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1 from 9944 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →

Claims and verdicts

unverified RM48U target missiles made up more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles Russia fired at Ukraine in July and early August.
Only Espreso TV carries the figure. It relays Reuters, which cites military analysts at Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office, and we hold no second count.
Checked against 1 source:
E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
unverified Russia plans to more than double RM48U output, to 480 missiles this year from 200 last year.
Espreso TV carries this from Reuters, citing Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), a party to the war. No other report we hold gives a production figure.
Checked against 1 source:
E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
unverified Russia is firing RM48U missiles so it can save more precise missiles for a winter campaign.
Espreso TV carries this as the assessment of one RUSI analyst, Sidharth Kaushal, relayed by Reuters. Obozrevatel gives a different aim, draining Ukraine's interceptor stocks; the two explanations do not rule each other out, and neither report shows Russia's intent.
Checked against 2 sources:
E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
O Obozrevatel
Centre-right estimate · not a score
Obozrevatel 🇺🇦UA · digital · Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Obozrevatel → What we have measured Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1 from 9944 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →

Who wrote it

М Марія Дроб'язко Espreso TV
What the bias passes found in their reporting
Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use.×1
Anonymous sourcing The whole account rests on diplomats who are not named×1
Are the hurt counted the dead are neither counted nor named; the injured are 'dozens'×1
A second, unreconciled figure a different amount appears at the end, and no report explains how it relates to the first×1
Claims we checked that rest on their reporting
1 misleading6 disputed24 unverified11 true
From 483 reports we hold under this byline, at Espreso TV. Two independent readings, each made without the masthead, a quote attached to every tag. A record, never a rating. Their full record →
А Анна Якубец Obozrevatel
What the bias passes found in their reporting
Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting×1
Motive stated flat The purpose, draining Ukraine's interceptors, is stated with no one named as saying it.×1
Naming and labels the label is in the report's own voice, in a sentence of plain record×1
Purpose stated flat States with no attribution that the launches are meant to drain Ukraine's interceptors×1
Claims we checked that rest on their reporting
1 unverified1 true
From 228 reports we hold under this byline, at Obozrevatel. Two independent readings, each made without the masthead, a quote attached to every tag. A record, never a rating. Their full record →
The bylines on the reports this story is built from. Hover one for what our passes have measured on their reporting.

Coverage, outlet by outlet

E Espreso TV
Centre estimate · not a score
Espreso TV 🇺🇦UA · digital · Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Espreso TV → What we have measured Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1 from 3655 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
—
Carries the Reuters investigation: the share of launches, the 300-metre average miss, the Kvitneva strike, a RUSI analyst's save-for-winter reading, and stock and production estimates from ISW and Ukraine's military
Про це з посиланням на дані українських військових та власне розслідування пише Reuters."Ракета-мішень" RM48U спершу створювалася як навчальна ціль для тренувань протиповітряної оборони, однак цього літа Росія вперше почала масово застосовувати її як бойову зброю. За даними військових аналітиків Генеральної прокуратури, у липні та на початку серпня RM48U становили понад половину зі 228 балістичних і гіперзвукових ракет, випущених по Україні.Ракета летить по балістичній траєкторії на високій швидкості, але поступається основній ударній ракеті Росії — "Іскандеру" — і в потужності, і в точності:
No actor named: No actor is named for the absence of new Patriot deliveries. — “нових партій найближчим часом не передбачається”
Motive attributed: The purpose, saving precise missiles for winter, is attributed to a named analyst at a London think tank. — “Це дозволяє росіянам берегти більш потужні ракети — Іскандери, а також KN-23 і Циркони — на зиму”
Dead counted not named: Eight dead are counted, and where they were is described. None is named. — “тоді загинули вісім людей, які чекали на потяг”
Figure source one side: The production figure comes from Ukraine's military intelligence and is attributed as such. — “За даними української розвідки (ГУР), Росія планує більш ніж удвічі наростити виробництво RM48U”
Actor named: Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. — “цього літа Росія вперше почала масово застосовувати її як бойову зброю”
Purpose attributed: Gives the save-for-winter purpose to a named London analyst — “Це дозволяє росіянам берегти більш потужні ракети”
No actor named: The strike that killed eight is phrased as 'struck' with no actor named — “Саме такою ракетою, встановили українські слідчі, 4 серпня вдарили по залізничній платформі”
The dead counted, not named: Eight dead, counted and not named — “тоді загинули вісім людей, які чекали на потяг”
Figure attributed: The production figure is given to Ukrainian military intelligence — “За даними української розвідки (ГУР), Росія планує більш ніж удвічі наростити виробництво RM48U”
Whose voice: The sources are Ukrainian prosecutors, Ukrainian intelligence, a US think tank and a London analyst. No Russian account appears. — “у Москви залишається близько 100 "Іскандерів" проти 400 наявних RM48U”
Read it at Espreso TV → https://espreso.tv/viyna-z-rosiyeyu-rosiya-vdvichi-narostit-vipusk-navc…
O Obozrevatel
Centre-right estimate · not a score
Obozrevatel 🇺🇦UA · digital · Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно Open this report in The AI Times → Read it at Obozrevatel → What we have measured Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1 from 9944 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
—
Says in its own voice that the mass launches aim to drain Ukraine's interceptor stocks, and names no source.
В последние месяцы Россия массово использует для атак на Украину перепрофилированные учебные ракеты RM48U. Так, из 228 баллистических и гиперзвуковых ракет, выпущенных по Украине в июле и в начале августа, более половины составляли RM48U. Запуск большого количества таких учебных ракет служит для России способом истощить запасы украинских ракет-перехватчиков. Об этом сообщило издание Reuters. Что известно Ракета RM48U изначально была разработана для стрелковых учений бригад ПВО. Использование этих более дешевых ракет позволяет России сохранить свои запасы "Искандеров" и истощить любые запасы ук
Motive stated flat: The purpose, draining Ukraine's interceptors, is stated with no one named as saying it. — “Запуск большого количества этих ракет направлен на то, чтобы истощить запасы украинских ракет-перехватчиков”
Purpose stated flat: States with no attribution that the launches are meant to drain Ukraine's interceptors — “Запуск большого количества этих ракет направлен на то, чтобы истощить запасы украинских ракет-перехватчиков”
Read it at Obozrevatel → https://war.obozrevatel.com/rossiya-aktivno-ispolzuet-dlya-atak-na-ukra…
Checked, didn’t cover
M Meduza
Centre estimate · not a score
Meduza 🇱🇻LV · digital · exile No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Agenda given without a verdict the only report that lists what was discussed and stops there ×1Asserted versus attributed figure attributed to the leaders' own declaration ×1Attribution the release is sourced to the leaders' joint declaration ×1Attribution inside the sentence the whole account marked as one leader's telling ×1 from 1071 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
R RIA Novosti
State / loyalist estimate · not a score
RIA Novosti 🇷🇺RU · state agency · state-controlled No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named no attacker named; the channels only 'said' there were failures ×1Actor named the outage is reported with no actor named ×1Actor named 'the West' is named as acting, attributed to the foreign ministry spokeswoman ×1Actor named headline names Ukraine's armed forces as the attacker ×1 from 31373 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
T The Moscow Times
Centre estimate · not a score
The Moscow Times 🇳🇱NL · newspaper · exile No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Asserted vs attributed Repeats a two-sided deal on one side's word; the second party's silence is not mentioned. ×1Asserted vs attributed headline states the nuclear warning flat, with no source ×1Attributed justification Russia's justification is carried in quotation marks and attributed. No Ukrainian response is given. ×1Attribution Attributes the threat to Moscow and repeats the ministry's list of targets unchallenged. ×1 from 429 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
S Suspilne
Centre estimate · not a score
Suspilne 🇺🇦UA · public broadcaster · public-service No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor label Names the attacker as 'the Russian army' and gives the date ×1Actor label The Russian side is called 'occupiers' in the headline. ×1Actor named The sentence is given by 'occupiers', so the actor is named and labelled. ×1Actor named hurt aged On the other side of the Dnipro, the Russian drone is named as the actor and the wounded man is given an age, not a name. The vote is called 'pseudo-elections' in the report's own voice. ×1 from 20607 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
U Ukrainska Pravda
Centre estimate · not a score
Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦UA · digital · independent No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named shortages are described with no one named as causing them ×1Actor named The cancellation is pinned on a named Hungarian official's refusal. ×1Actor named The town is called 'occupied', but the lede does not name who occupies it or who blocks aid. ×1Actor named Names the EU and partners as the ones paying ×1 from 7025 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
I Interfax
Centre estimate · not a score
Interfax 🇷🇺RU · digital · No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1 from 7627 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
U Ukrinform
State / loyalist estimate · not a score
Ukrinform 🇺🇦UA · digital · state-controlled No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named names the occupying force ×1Actor named Names the occupying force but not what residents are fleeing from ×1Actor named No actor is named. The drone is not attributed to anyone. ×1Actor named Names the attacker and what was damaged, and states the halt flat without naming a source. ×1 from 2995 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
M Mediazona
Centre estimate · not a score
Mediazona 🇷🇺RU · digital · independent No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named the Russian army is named as the actor, in active voice ×1A running total, and a collective actor 'two more' implies earlier removals, and the courts act as a plural with no case or plaintiff named ×1Harm counted The only report that counts people hurt, with a floor rather than a figure ×1Harm counted the only report that counts people hurt ×1 from 803 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
N Novaya Gazeta Europe
Centre estimate · not a score
Novaya Gazeta Europe 🇱🇻LV · newspaper · exile No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Actor named Names Russia as the actor in the headline and in the first line. ×1Anonymous source asserts The report's strongest claim, that results were falsified across most regions, comes from a source it does not name ×1Anonymous sourcing Everything rests on a foreign newspaper citing two unnamed diplomats. ×1A party's label carried inside a quote, unmarked the Kremlin spokesman's phrase for the Ukrainian government is reproduced without a note ×1 from 1055 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Silence is recorded, not inferred — each of these was read when we built this story and carried nothing on this event.
We could not read these
T TASS
State / loyalist estimate · not a score
TASS 🇷🇺RU · state agency · state-controlled No report held from this outlet on this story. What we have measured Accusation carried by a verb of fact 'Noted' presents a Russian diplomat's accusation of terror as an observation. Kyiv gives no response anywhere in the text. ×1Accusation carried unhedged a charge of terror against civilians is introduced with 'noted', which treats it as fact, and nobody answers it ×1Actor named Ukrainian forces are named as acting, in the report's own voice ×1Actor named Names 'the Western community' as the actor, in Putin's words ×1 from 6410 articles we hold · quote attached Outlet profile in The AI Times →
These are must-cite outlets for this desk that we did not manage to read when we built this story. That is a gap in our reach, not a silence on their part, and it is not evidence of anything about this story.

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