Espreso, via Reuters: Russia fires RM48Us to save better missiles for winter. Obozrevatel: to drain Ukraine's interceptors
Two Ukrainian outlets give two reasons for the same cheap missile. Espreso names the analyst behind its reason; Obozrevatel names no one. Neither report carries Russia's own account.
The missile. The RM48U was built as a target for air-defence drills. Espreso, relaying Reuters, says Russia began firing it in large numbers as a weapon this summer.
The count. Military analysts at Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office told Reuters it made up more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine in July and early August. By their estimate, it misses by 300 metres on average. We hold no second count.
The dead. Ukrainian investigators say an RM48U hit the Kvitneva railway platform near Brovary on 4 August. Eight people waiting for a train were killed. No report we hold names them.
Why fire it — two answers:
| Outlet | Aim given | Who says so |
|---|---|---|
| Espreso (via Reuters) | Save Iskanders, KN-23s and Zircons for a winter campaign | Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI, London |
| Obozrevatel | Drain Ukraine's stock of interceptors | No one named |
The two do not rule each other out.
Output. Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) says Russia plans to make 480 this year, up from 200 last year. The Institute for the Study of War estimates Moscow holds about 100 Iskanders and 400 RM48Us.
Not settled. What Russia intends: neither report carries a Russian account. The share of launches and the accuracy figure come from Ukrainian prosecutors alone. The production figure comes from Ukraine's intelligence alone. Obozrevatel's report reached us as a single sentence.
What this is about. Russia is firing a cheap missile, built as a practice target, at Ukraine, and outlets disagree on why.
How it got here. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and backed armed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, in Ukraine's east. That is when the war began. In February 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion. Since then it has struck Ukrainian cities, power plants and railways with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Every winter since 2022, Russian strikes have hit Ukraine's power grid.
Ballistic missiles are the hardest of these to stop. They come down at high speed on a steep arc. Russia's main one is the Iskander. Espreso's report also names the North Korean KN-23 and the hypersonic Zircon.
The actors. Russia fires the missiles. Ukraine defends against them. Espreso's report says the US-made Patriot system is the only weapon Ukraine has that can shoot ballistic missiles down. Ukraine's Western partners supply the Patriot interceptors; Ukraine does not make them. A Ukrainian company is testing a cheaper interceptor of its own.
What is at stake. A missile that is cheap to make can still force Ukraine to spend a costly interceptor on it, or let it through. Either way, the size of each side's stock matters. If Russia is holding its more accurate missiles back, the open question is what they will be aimed at when the weather turns cold.
Where it stands. Espreso reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more Patriot deliveries straight after the 4 August strike near Kyiv, and that no new batches are expected soon. Neither report we hold carries a Russian statement on the RM48U.
What is being argued about
- Why Russia is firing a training target missile as a weapon
- Whether cheap missiles are meant to exhaust Ukraine's Patriot interceptors
- The 4 August strike on the Kvitneva platform near Brovary
- How many RM48Us and Iskanders Russia holds and makes
Claims and verdicts
Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Espreso TV →
What we have measured
Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Espreso TV →
What we have measured
Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Espreso TV →
What we have measured
Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
O
Obozrevatel
Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Obozrevatel →
What we have measured
Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Who wrote it
Coverage, outlet by outlet
Росія вдвічі наростить випуск навчальних ракет RM48U для ударів по Україні, аби зберегти точні ракети для зими, — Reuters
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Espreso TV →
What we have measured
Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the shift to combat use. ×1Actor named Russia is named as the actor in the data-centre strike. Nobody is named behind the DDoS attack. ×1Actor named for the decision Names the EU Council as the body that acted and gives the date and the new expiry date. ×1Adopted wording The company's own word 'minor' sits next to the report's flat statement that customers could not send or receive parcels. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
—
Россия активно использует для атак на Украину учебные ракеты RM48U: что о них известно
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Obozrevatel →
What we have measured
Actor label Names the attacker as 'occupiers' and gives 12 hurt, with no one cited as counting ×1Actor named no attacker named; the drone 'hit near' the building ×1Actor named No actor is named, and the headline puts the hit near the building rather than on it. ×1Actors left vague the neighbouring countries are not named ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
—