Examiner calls Michigan "razor-thin" at 48-45; the Post says El-Sayed "lags his party" at 53-48
One telephone poll of 803 Michigan voters, read two ways on the same day. The Democrat's 3-point lead is smaller than the poll's own 3.9-point margin of error.
One poll. The Washington Post-Schar School surveyed 803 likely Michigan voters by telephone from 10 to 14 September, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points. It puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed on 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers on 45 — a 3-point gap inside a 3.9-point margin.
Two readings, same day.
| Outlet | The figure it led with | Method printed |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Examiner | A "razor-thin race", 48 to 45, inside the margin | dates, telephone, 803 voters, plus or minus 3.9 |
| The Washington Post | 53 percent want Democrats to control the Senate; 48 percent back El-Sayed — "how El-Sayed lags his party" | not in the summary we hold |
| Fox News | The Detroit News endorsing Rogers, a "savage rebuke" over deleted posts | no poll figures |
A second poll, once. The Examiner alone reports a Hill/Emerson College survey released Thursday at El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46. It gives no sample size, no field dates and no margin, so the method cannot be checked.
The name. The Examiner spells the Democratic nominee "el Sayed". The Post and Fox News spell him "El-Sayed".
Not settled. Rogers calls El-Sayed "maybe the most anti-American candidate across the country today". No report we hold carries El-Sayed answering that. The Examiner writes that "critics have accused" him of antisemitism, and names none of them. No report we hold quotes a Michigan voter.
This is a story about one opinion poll on one US Senate seat, and about which number out of it goes first.
How it got here. The US Senate has 100 seats, two per state, and its majority decides which nominees are confirmed and which bills reach a vote. Republicans hold it 53-47. A third of the chamber is contested at the midterm elections, held halfway through a presidential term; the reports place polling day less than seven weeks off. Michigan's Democratic senator, Gary Peters, is retiring, so the seat is open — which is why a state that leans neither way reliably is now a national contest. Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary in early August; Mike Rogers, a Republican and a former member of the House, is the nominee against him. The Cook Political Report rates the race a "Toss Up".
Why the margin matters. A poll's margin of error is the range its own method says the true figure probably sits within. A 3-point gap reported inside a 3.9-point margin does not establish who is ahead. That single fact is what the two readings of this poll turn on.
What else is loaded into the race. El-Sayed campaigned through the primary with Hasan Piker, a Twitch streamer whose statements on Israel and on US foreign policy Rogers uses against him. In March a man rammed a vehicle into one of Michigan's largest synagogues and opened fire; El-Sayed condemned the attack but said "hurt people hurt people", and apologised for that in August at an event hosted by the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus.
Where it stands. Kamala Harris has confirmed she will campaign for El-Sayed and former Representative Sander Levin has endorsed him. The Detroit News, the Detroit Regional Chamber and the National Roofing Contractors Association have backed Rogers.
What is being argued about
- Whether a 3-point lead inside a 3.9-point margin of error is a lead at all
- Which figure from one poll leads the story: the candidate's 48 or his party's 53
- A second poll cited once, with no sample, dates or margin attached
- Attacks quoted at length with no answer from the candidate beside them
Claims and verdicts
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
El Sayed polling tight with Rogers while other Democrats dominate in Michigan
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Washington Examiner →
What we have measured
Accusation printed unanswered a named candidate is accused of responsibility for murders, with no response carried ×1Accused named Names one accused student, citing the lawsuit; no other report we hold names any of the accused ×1Accused named Names each person charged and gives their nationality. None of the defendants is quoted. ×1Accused named Names one accused student from the civil filing and attributes the claim to the lawsuit ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
T
The Washington Post
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
El Sayed polling tight with Rogers while other Democrats dominate in Michigan
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Washington Examiner →
What we have measured
Accusation printed unanswered a named candidate is accused of responsibility for murders, with no response carried ×1Accused named Names one accused student, citing the lawsuit; no other report we hold names any of the accused ×1Accused named Names each person charged and gives their nationality. None of the defendants is quoted. ×1Accused named Names one accused student from the civil filing and attributes the claim to the lawsuit ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
Who wrote it
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
Fox News
Coverage, outlet by outlet
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
El Sayed polling tight with Rogers while other Democrats dominate in Michigan
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Washington Examiner →
What we have measured
Accusation printed unanswered a named candidate is accused of responsibility for murders, with no response carried ×1Accused named Names one accused student, citing the lawsuit; no other report we hold names any of the accused ×1Accused named Names each person charged and gives their nationality. None of the defendants is quoted. ×1Accused named Names one accused student from the civil filing and attributes the claim to the lawsuit ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
— independent
Fox News
Fox News
🇺🇸US ·
TV/radio · independent
Mother Jones
Mother Jones
🇺🇸US ·
magazine · independent
What we have measured
Asserted, not attributed 'ultra-gerrymandered' stated as fact ×1Asserted versus attributed 'Cover-up' is asserted in the report's own voice, not attributed ×1Asserted versus attributed calls it a cover-up in its own voice ×1Assertion vs attribution describes the operation as a 'violent occupation' in its own voice, with no source for the phrase ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Reuters
Reuters
🇺🇸US ·
wire · independent
What we have measured
Actor named The attacker is the subject of an active verb for both the deaths and the damage ×1Actor named No actor named for who cancelled the flights ×1Agreement stated flat, source in a tail attribution moved after the dash ×1Announcement written as settled A social-media post becomes a future indicative: the conversion will happen ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
N
NPR
Breitbart
Breitbart
🇺🇸US ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Anyone hurt is counted, not named eight deaths given as a number only ×1Framing of motive The lede calls the denial a punishment and puts 'fake news' in quotation marks; the officials being sued are left unnamed ×1How the person shot is named a status, not a name: the only report that never uses either name calls him an illegal alien ×1How the place is described a party label attached to the city in the same clause as the casualty count ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
MSNBC
MSNBC
🇺🇸US ·
TV/radio · independent
What we have measured
Accuser not named The lede does not name the senator making the accusation ×1Actor named for the ban The White House is the subject of both verbs: it blocked journalists, then let CNN back in. ×1A first stated flat a never-before claim carried without a source attached ×1Asserted, not attributed absence of fraud evidence stated as fact ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
The Hill
The Hill
🇺🇸US ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Accusation attributed the word lying is placed in a named politician's mouth, not the outlet's ×1Actor named No actor named for who kept reporters out ×1Actor named No actor named for who let reporters back in ×1Actor named Names the state as the one that carried out the execution. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
The New York Times
The New York Times
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Active and passive voice the ship is 'targeted' with no actor, one sentence before a named actor is given for the Saudi attack ×1Active vs passive voice Pike is named as the killer in the active voice; the botched execution has no actor named ×1Actor label Names the shooter by its backer, not by its own name. ×1Actor named Names the official and what the process did to Pike. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
National Review
National Review
🇺🇸US ·
magazine · independent
What we have measured
Asserted not attributed Doubt about the allegation is stated flat, in the outlet's own voice ×1Asserted not attributed An argument about deterrence is stated as fact ×1Asserted versus attributed calls it an abuse of power in its own voice ×1Asserted versus attributed 'Abuse of presidential power' is stated flat ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal
🇺🇸US ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Outlet profile in The AI Times →