Frankfurter Allgemeine says the AfD "could be passing its peak", Welt says it "already sits at every table"
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin voted on Sunday. Seven reports, three outside experts, three different futures - and one number between them: the 1.3 million people entitled to vote in the northern state.
The vote. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elected a new state parliament on Sunday, the same day Berlin voted. The Frankfurter Allgemeine is the only report we hold that carries a number about the vote itself: around 1.3 million people entitled to cast one. No report we hold gives a poll figure for any party.
The disagreement. Three of the seven reports are built on a single named outside voice. They forecast opposite things about the same party on the same day, and none of them sets one forecast against another.
| Report | What it says | Hedged? |
|---|---|---|
| Frankfurter Allgemeine, quoting historian Heinrich August Winkler | the AfD "could be passing its peak", and is beatable if the CDU-SPD government holds to its reforms | yes, in his own words, in the headline |
| Welt, quoting communications expert Bela Anda | "The AfD already sits at every table" - and whatever Sunday does, "it sets the programme" | no - carried flat, in the headline |
| Welt, quoting political scientist Oliver W. Lembcke | rules out Merz emerging strengthened from the two votes: "one would wish Merz to 'survive' this day" | the ruling-out is flat; the wish is not |
| Gazeta Wyborcza | if the CDU does badly and the AfD scores another success, Merz "may even lose his position" | stated as a condition |
Not settled. Whether Merz is in danger: no report we hold names anyone in his party moving against him, or says how he would be removed. Whether Manuela Schwesig's SPD can hold the state: two Welt reports raise it, one calling it a possible "election sensation", while Gazeta Wyborcza expects an AfD success - and none of the three carries a number. The 1.3 million rests on one report alone.
What this is about. On Sunday 20 September 2026 the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elected a new state parliament, and Berlin voted the same day. Most of the coverage we hold reads those state votes as a test of the federal chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
How it got here. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is one of Germany's sixteen states, on the Baltic coast in the north-east. It was part of the German Democratic Republic until unification in 1990, and eastern results have been counted and argued over separately ever since. At the federal election of February 2025 the CDU/CSU finished first and the AfD second. Merz, the CDU leader, became chancellor in May 2025 at the head of a coalition with the SPD - the black-red government whose reform programme the Frankfurter Allgemeine's historian makes the condition of the AfD being beaten. Every state election since has been read in Berlin as a verdict on that coalition.
Who is in it. Manuela Schwesig of the SPD is Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's minister-president and is running to keep the office. Leif-Erik Holm is the AfD's lead candidate in the state; both cast their votes on Sunday. The AfD is the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, and every other party has so far refused to govern with it. Campact, a campaigning organisation, urged tactical voting in the eastern states, which is what taz writes about: it says Campact overdoes it, and that Die Linke's criticism of Campact is excessive but justified.
What is at stake. In the state: who governs it, and whether the AfD becomes its largest party. Federally, nothing directly - a chancellor is removed only by the Bundestag, in a constructive vote of no confidence that names his replacement. What a bad night can change is his own party's judgement of him, and that is the danger Gazeta Wyborcza and Welt's political scientist are describing.
Where it stands. Every report we hold was filed on Sunday morning, before the polls closed. None carries a result.
What is being argued about
- Whether the AfD is still rising or has passed its peak
- Whether two state results can cost Friedrich Merz the chancellorship
- Whether Manuela Schwesig's SPD can hold Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- Campact's tactical-voting campaign in the eastern states
Claims and verdicts
Gazeta Wyborcza
Gazeta Wyborcza
🇵🇱PL ·
newspaper · independent
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Gazeta Wyborcza
Gazeta Wyborcza
🇵🇱PL ·
newspaper · independent
Frankfurter Allgemeine
Frankfurter Allgemeine
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Who wrote it
Welt
Frankfurter Allgemeine
Gazeta Wyborcza
Coverage, outlet by outlet
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Frankfurter Allgemeine
Frankfurter Allgemeine
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Frankfurter Allgemeine
Frankfurter Allgemeine
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Welt
Welt
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
Gazeta Wyborcza
Gazeta Wyborcza
🇵🇱PL ·
newspaper · independent
Taktisch-wählen-Kampagne von Campact: Die Kritik der Linkspartei ist überzogen, aber berechtigt
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Read it at taz →
What we have measured
Actor named names both coalition parties as the sides of the conflict ×1Actor named Makes the Constitutional Court the actor that overturned the Supreme Court's argument. ×1With no actor named critics The pressure comes from 'the internet', with no critic named. ×1Asserted in the outlet's voice a motive assigned to an entire electorate, no source and no evidence ×1
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—
Deník N
Deník N
🇨🇿CZ ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Actor named The headline names speculators as the actors who evicted a grandmother, stated flat. ×1Asserted, and a government judged A wave of Russian state terrorism is stated as fact and Germany is rated on its response; the piece is labelled a comment ×1Asserted, not attributed Washington's refusal and its reasoning stated flat, with no source ×1Assessment stated flat Says in its own voice, with no source, that Russian air defence worked well. ×1
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El Mundo
El Mundo
🇪🇸ES ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Actor named The dispute is between named Spanish officials over who was warned. There is no figure of Moroccan personnel. ×1Actor named The dispute is between named officials, and the report carries no figure. ×1Asserted, not attributed defiance of a named president is stated flat as what the meeting was ×1Asserted not attributed States Moscow's own reason, retaliation, as fact ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Brussels Signal
Brussels Signal
🇧🇪BE ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Asserted vs attributed cause and effect on services asserted in the reporter's voice, no figure attached ×1Asserted vs attributed States record diesel prices flat, with no source; another report says there is no shortage ×1Asserted vs attributed The figure of 72 is stated flat, with no named source or document. The report's own inference is 'significant infiltration'. ×1Asserted vs attributed record diesel prices stated flat, with no figure and no source ×1
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Dagens Nyheter
Dagens Nyheter
🇸🇪SE ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Accused label flat accused is labelled far-right without attribution, and not named ×1Affected counted Only report to count the residents affected ×1Asserted or attributed the majority stated flat, with nobody credited for the count ×1Asserted or attributed the demand is written as the report's own flat sentence before it is attributed to anyone ×1
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Efimerida ton Syntakton
Efimerida ton Syntakton
🇬🇷GR ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Adjective without figure Calls the war bloody but gives no count ×1Anyone hurt named the only report we hold that names one of the dead ×1Anyone hurt named the only report we hold that names a person who died ×1Asserted not attributed Calls the move 'unprecedented' in its own voice ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Observador
Observador
🇵🇹PT ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Accusation attributed The fuel retailers' charge is attributed, 'accuses'. No government response is carried. ×1Affected person unnamed the woman is not named, and no cause of the eviction is given ×1Analyst verdict as headline one commentator's judgement on European mood is the headline ×1Asserted or attributed the charge against two foreign states is carried as the prime minister's view, not the report's ×1
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Telex
Telex
🇭🇺HU ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Actor framed as giving The headline makes the government the actor, and what it does is support drivers. ×1Actor named NATO is named as acting; it 'chased them off' ×1Adopted term Uses the government's own phrase 'targeted support' without quotation marks ×1Asserted vs attributed 'under cover of night' attributed to Mária Schmidt, with the ministry's 8pm set beside it ×1
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Rzeczpospolita
Rzeczpospolita
🇵🇱PL ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Accountability The only report to say prosecutors are investigating ×1Asserted not attributed Hungary's need for more time is stated as fact, not as the government's claim ×1Claim asserted flat says EU law has never known such an offer, with no lawyer, official or text cited ×1Correction carried the correction is in the lede, attributed to Lithuania ×1
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Le Figaro
Le Figaro
🇫🇷FR ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Asserted, not attributed the capture of the strait and a "lightning offensive" are stated flat, with no source and no date ×1Asserted vs attributed The mayor's account and his opponents' charge are both attributed. ×1Asserted vs attributed The capture of the strait is stated flat, as settled background to a different story, with no source and no date for the claim. ×1Attacker identified by nationality in the headline ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Politico Europe
Politico Europe
🇧🇪BE ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Actor named vaguely The opponents are 'other capitals', with no country named ×1With no actor named accusation The coup accusation is in the passive; the accuser is not named ×1Asserted vs attributed The contradiction is stated as fact by the report, sourced only to unspecified official notes ×1Asserted vs attributed the stall stated flat in the headline, with Athens named as the actor that rejected ×1
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HotNews.ro
HotNews.ro
🇷🇴RO ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Accusation unanswered AUR's claim of a plan agreed between the president and PSD runs in the headline and lede. No reply from the president is carried. ×1Actor named Names the blocs that refuse any exemption ×1Anonymous sourcing The jamming device found in his car rests on unnamed judicial sources, relayed through a news agency. ×1Asserted not attributed the outcome is declared settled before voting opens ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
NOS
NOS
🇳🇱NL ·
public broadcaster · public-service
What we have measured
Actor label The backers are labelled politically; the opponents, all other major parties, get no label ×1Actor named Names the Supreme Court as the court that withdrew the warrant. ×1Actor named and attributed Construction workers are named as having damaged a cable by accident, and the report attributes this to the aviation regulator. ×1Actor named, in passive Israeli airstrikes are named as what destroyed the building, but the sentence puts the building first ×1
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Svenska Dagbladet
Svenska Dagbladet
🇸🇪SE ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Attributed context The Iran link is hedged and credited to another newspaper ×1Hedged context Base's use for strikes on Iran is hedged and attributed to another paper ×1Hedged or flat a directional claim about the race stated flat, with no poll figure behind it ×1Loss stated flat, size not given a large loss asserted with no figure, and a coalition demand named in the same line ×1
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ABC
ABC
🇪🇸ES ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Figure chosen 80,000, stated flat and unsourced; every other report we hold says about 70,000 ×1Figure chosen 80,000 crossed, stated flat, no source for the number ×1How hard the claim is stated Calls it an invasion in the outlet's own voice, unattributed, inside a sentence about the judge. ×1Which figure is used same two days, no figure at all: thousands ×1
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Die Presse
Die Presse
🇦🇹AT ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Who is named as acting Calls the party right and its people the far right in the outlet's own voice; three reports use only its name. ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Il Giornale
Il Giornale
🇮🇹IT ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Euractiv
Euractiv
🇧🇪BE ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Measure chosen the only report we hold that breaks the result down by voters' age ×1Measure chosen the only report we hold that publishes how the age groups split ×1Which figure is used about 80,000 stated flat and unsourced — an order of magnitude above every other figure we hold ×1Which figure is used Puts 80,000 across the border in two days with no source for the figure and nobody attributed for it. ×1
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Le Monde
Le Monde
🇫🇷FR ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Anyone hurt named or counted the only death toll we hold; a round number, hedged, nobody named ×1Anyone hurt named or counted the only report we hold that gives a death toll; it counts, does not name ×1Who says the label flat in the headline, no source, no hedge ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
El País
El País
🇪🇸ES ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Figure chosen more than 70,000 crossed, the higher figure not mentioned ×1Word for the event invasion, in quote marks and put in a party leader's mouth ×1Word for the event, attributed same word, but in quotation marks and inside a politician's accusation ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
la Repubblica
la Repubblica
🇮🇹IT ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Outlet profile in The AI Times →
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Süddeutsche Zeitung
🇩🇪DE ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
Hedged or stated states flat that police do not know whether the person seen is the man they want ×1Suspect identified how age and home town only, and the sabotage is what police attribute, not what the report asserts ×1
Outlet profile in The AI Times →