Russia's Central Bank says lost capacity returns 'by year-end'; the IEA, per Ekonomichna Pravda, sees refining 30% down for 18 months

What the bank says. Bank of Russia chair Elvira Nabiullina said on 11 September that the bank still expects lost production capacity to be restored "by the end of the year", Interfax reports. The bank held its key rate at 14%.

What the IEA says. The International Energy Agency cut its baseline forecast for Russian refining over the next 18 months to about 4 million barrels a day, Ekonomichna Pravda reports. That is 30% below the level before the invasion of Ukraine.

How the cause is worded. Interfax quotes Nabiullina on "attacks on logistics chains", with no actor named. Life.ru writes "drone attacks". None of the 8 reports says whose drones. Nabiullina says the effect on inflation is "low, insignificant" so far.

The rate. Life.ru's headline says the bank "surprised" with a pause. Interfax quotes Nabiullina: a cut was "not discussed in substance".

What is not settled. Whether the two timelines measure the same thing. We hold only the opening of Ekonomichna Pravda's report, and no other report cites the IEA. From Vedomosti we hold only a headline, and it is softer: Nabiullina "allowed for" a gradual recovery of the fuel market. No report measures the inflation effect independently.

What this is about. Russia's oil refineries have lost capacity during its war with Ukraine. Russia's central bank and an international energy agency now disagree on how long the shortfall will last.

How it got here. - Russia's war on Ukraine began in 2014, when it annexed Crimea and backed armed forces in the Donbas. The full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. - The EU, the G7 and their allies answered with sanctions. The G7 capped the price of Russian seaborne crude from December 2022. The EU stopped most imports of Russian crude by sea that December, and of refined fuels in February 2023. - Oil and fuel remain among Russia's largest sources of export earnings and budget revenue. That makes refineries both an economic asset and a military target. - Since 2024, Ukraine has said it strikes Russian refineries and fuel infrastructure with long-range drones. Russia calls these attacks. The reports we hold on this week's news mention drone attacks but do not say whose drones they were, or which sites were hit.

Who the actors are. - The Bank of Russia sets the key interest rate and is responsible for keeping inflation down. Elvira Nabiullina has chaired it since 2013. It had been cutting rates. On 11 September it paused and held the rate at 14%. - The International Energy Agency was set up in 1974. It advises mostly Western governments on energy supply and publishes forecasts of world oil markets. - The Russian government and oil companies are the ones repairing and protecting the plants, according to Nabiullina as Vedomosti reports her. - Ukraine is fighting the invasion, and says it targets Russia's fuel industry to cut the money and fuel that go to the war.

What is at stake. If refining recovers quickly, fuel prices inside Russia settle and the bank can go back to cutting rates. If it stays down for a year or more, Russia faces fuel shortages at home, lower export earnings, and pressure on prices. That pressure would keep borrowing expensive.

Where it stands. The bank expects lost capacity back by the end of the year. As Ekonomichna Pravda reports it, the IEA expects refining to stay about 30% below pre-invasion levels for about 18 months. Neither has published figures that let a reader check the two against each other.