Siluanov's 2027 deficit is "2,2% ВВП" for RIA and Vedomosti; Interfax puts it at 5.5 trillion roubles against the 1.2% already in law
Russia's government presented its 2027–2029 budget and forecasts on 24 September. RIA Novosti and Vedomosti report the finance minister's 2.2% deficit with nothing to compare it with. Interfax sets it against the budget law now in force. On Interfax's figures, the deficit is about 2.3 trillion roubles larger than the law allows.
The deficit. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the 2027 federal deficit will be 2.2% of GDP, RIA Novosti and Vedomosti report. Interfax works out the gap itself from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's figures. Revenue is 43.3 trillion roubles and spending 48.8 trillion, so the budget is about 5.5 trillion short. The budget law for 2026–2028 set the 2027 deficit at 3.186 trillion roubles, or 1.2% of GDP.
| Current law | New draft | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, 2027 | 42.91 trn | 43.3 trn |
| Spending, 2027 | 46.096 trn | 48.8 trn |
| Deficit, 2027 | 3.186 trn (1.2%) | ~5.5 trn (2.2%, per Siluanov) |
The forecasts. TASS leads on the government aiming to keep inflation "close to 4%". Interfax and Vedomosti report that the economy ministry raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6.8%, from 5.2% in May. Interfax says the ministry now expects investment to fall 5.4% this year, not 1.5%. The 2027 growth forecast stays at 1.4%, below the central bank's range of 1.5–2.5%, Interfax adds.
The framing. Regnum opens with Mishustin's claim that the economy is resilient "thanks to carrying out the president's instructions". It names him only afterwards.
Not settled. - The 2.2% and the 5.5 trillion come from two different speakers. No report we hold puts both figures in one sentence. - No report we hold says how the larger gap will be covered. - No report quotes an economist from outside government.
What this is. Russia's government has drafted its federal budget for 2027 to 2029. The state plans to spend more than it takes in, and the gap is wider than the law now allows.
How it got here. Russia works to a rolling three-year budget. Each autumn the government drafts it, the State Duma votes on it, and the president signs it. The plan for 2026–2028 was passed that way in late 2025. Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, defence and payments to soldiers and their families have taken a large and growing share of spending. Western sanctions began after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and widened sharply in 2022. They have cut Russia off from much of the world's finance and squeezed its income from oil and gas, the budget's biggest source of revenue.
Who is involved. Mikhail Mishustin, prime minister since 2020, leads the government that writes the budget. Anton Siluanov, finance minister since 2011, sets the budget figures. Maxim Reshetnikov's economy ministry writes the growth and inflation forecasts the budget rests on. The Bank of Russia sets interest rates and targets 4% inflation. Its growth forecast is the only yardstick from outside government in these reports. This is the first budget of the new Duma's term, and the Duma must vote on it.
What is at stake. A budget built on a forecast that later slips has to be rewritten, or the gap has to be covered by borrowing or savings. Mishustin names three priorities: social obligations, defence and security, and the national development goals. A wider deficit brings forward the choice between them.
Where it stands. The cabinet has discussed the draft, and it goes to the Duma next. Since May, the economy ministry has raised its inflation forecast and cut its investment forecast. Investment fell 9.9% in the first half of 2026, Interfax reports.
What is being argued about
- How big the 2027 deficit is, and what it is measured against
- The 2026 inflation forecast raised from 5.2% to 6.8%
- The 2026 investment forecast cut from a 1.5% fall to a 5.4% fall
- A 1.4% growth forecast kept from May, below the central bank's range
Claims and verdicts
Дефицит бюджета в 2027 году составит 2,2 процента ВВП, сообщил Силуанов
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What we have measured
Actor named no attacker named; the channels only 'said' there were failures ×1Actor named the outage is reported with no actor named ×1Actor named 'the West' is named as acting, attributed to the foreign ministry spokeswoman ×1Actor named headline names Ukraine's armed forces as the attacker ×1
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V
Vedomosti
Силуанов: дефицит федерального бюджета на 2027 год составит 2,2% ВВП
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What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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I
Interfax
Доходы бюджета-2027 ожидаются на уровне 43,3 трлн рублей, расходы - 48,8 трлн рублей
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What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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Доходы бюджета-2027 ожидаются на уровне 43,3 трлн рублей, расходы - 48,8 трлн рублей
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Read it at Interfax →
What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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Макропрогноз правительства предполагает рост ВВП в 2027 году на 1,4%
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What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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R
Regnum
Мишустин: рост ВВП России составит 1,4% в 2027 году и 2,4% в 2029-м
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What we have measured
Actor label Calls Ukraine's president the head of a regime in the report's own voice. ×1Actor named names Ukraine's forces as the attacker of the town ×1Actor named Ukraine's armed forces are named outright as the side attacking the town ×1Actor named Names the organiser and says he is under arrest ×1
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L
Life.ru
Мишустин: ВВП России вырастет на 1,4% в 2027 году
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Read it at Life.ru →
What we have measured
Absence of notice framed as a finding a booking agent not having heard is put in the headline as the news ×1Absence used as rebuttal a booking service's lack of notice is run as a counter-report, sourced anonymously ×1Actor framing The company is the only actor named. The regulator appears only as a law it obeys. ×1Actor label Calls the Ukrainian president the head of a 'regime' ×1
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V
Vedomosti
Мишустин: ВВП России вырастет на 1,4% в 2027 году
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Read it at Vedomosti →
What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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T
TASS
Russian authorities intend to keep inflation close to 4% in three coming years — PM
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What we have measured
Accusation carried by a verb of fact 'Noted' presents a Russian diplomat's accusation of terror as an observation. Kyiv gives no response anywhere in the text. ×1Accusation carried unhedged a charge of terror against civilians is introduced with 'noted', which treats it as fact, and nobody answers it ×1Actor named Ukrainian forces are named as acting, in the report's own voice ×1Actor named Names 'the Western community' as the actor, in Putin's words ×1
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Who wrote it
Coverage, outlet by outlet
Силуанов: дефицит федерального бюджета на 2027 год составит 2,2% ВВП
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Read it at Vedomosti →
What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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—
Силуанов назвал новый размер МРОТ с 2027 года
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What we have measured
Absence of notice framed as a finding a booking agent not having heard is put in the headline as the news ×1Absence used as rebuttal a booking service's lack of notice is run as a counter-report, sourced anonymously ×1Actor framing The company is the only actor named. The regulator appears only as a law it obeys. ×1Actor label Calls the Ukrainian president the head of a 'regime' ×1
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—
Дефицит бюджета в 2027 году составит 2,2 процента ВВП, сообщил Силуанов
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What we have measured
Actor named no attacker named; the channels only 'said' there were failures ×1Actor named the outage is reported with no actor named ×1Actor named 'the West' is named as acting, attributed to the foreign ministry spokeswoman ×1Actor named headline names Ukraine's armed forces as the attacker ×1
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— state-controlled
Russian authorities intend to keep inflation close to 4% in three coming years — PM
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Read it at TASS →
What we have measured
Accusation carried by a verb of fact 'Noted' presents a Russian diplomat's accusation of terror as an observation. Kyiv gives no response anywhere in the text. ×1Accusation carried unhedged a charge of terror against civilians is introduced with 'noted', which treats it as fact, and nobody answers it ×1Actor named Ukrainian forces are named as acting, in the report's own voice ×1Actor named Names 'the Western community' as the actor, in Putin's words ×1
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— state-controlled
Минэкономразвития спрогнозировало инфляцию на конец года в 6,8%
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What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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—
Минэкономразвития повысило прогноз по инфляции-2026 до 6,8% с 5,2%
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What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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—
Мишустин: рост ВВП России составит 1,4% в 2027 году и 2,4% в 2029-м
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Read it at Regnum →
What we have measured
Actor label Calls Ukraine's president the head of a regime in the report's own voice. ×1Actor named names Ukraine's forces as the attacker of the town ×1Actor named Ukraine's armed forces are named outright as the side attacking the town ×1Actor named Names the organiser and says he is under arrest ×1
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—
Мишустин: ВВП России вырастет на 1,4% в 2027 году
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Read it at Life.ru →
What we have measured
Absence of notice framed as a finding a booking agent not having heard is put in the headline as the news ×1Absence used as rebuttal a booking service's lack of notice is run as a counter-report, sourced anonymously ×1Actor framing The company is the only actor named. The regulator appears only as a law it obeys. ×1Actor label Calls the Ukrainian president the head of a 'regime' ×1
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—
Мишустин: ВВП России вырастет на 1,4% в 2027 году
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Read it at Vedomosti →
What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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—
Силуанов: МРОТ в 2027 году повысят на 6,8%
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Read it at Vedomosti →
What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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—
Макропрогноз правительства предполагает рост ВВП в 2027 году на 1,4%
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Read it at Interfax →
What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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—
Мишустин: расходы бюджета России на 2027 год запланированы в 48,8 трлн рублей
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What we have measured
Actor named names Russia as the state actor, not the company, and frames it neutrally ×1Asserted vs attributed the headline attributes the attacks to Novak ×1Asserted vs attributed Attributes the attack count to Novak in the headline. ×1Attribution figure stated flat with no source named, and tied to 2027 ×1
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—
Минэкономразвития ухудшило прогноз снижения инвестиций в РФ в 2026 г. до 5,4%
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What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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—
Доходы бюджета-2027 ожидаются на уровне 43,3 трлн рублей, расходы - 48,8 трлн рублей
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Read it at Interfax →
What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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—
Минимальный размер оплаты труда в России увеличится до 28,9 тыс. рублей
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What we have measured
Actor label Calls Ukraine's president the head of a regime in the report's own voice. ×1Actor named names Ukraine's forces as the attacker of the town ×1Actor named Ukraine's armed forces are named outright as the side attacking the town ×1Actor named Names the organiser and says he is under arrest ×1
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Мишустин назвал три приоритета федерального бюджета в ближайшие три года
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What we have measured
A checkable claim passed on unchecked relays the president's statistic about world cities in quotation marks with no check and no counter-voice ×1A denial carried as characterisation press reports are labelled planted, and the label is passed on in the report's own voice ×1Anonymous source The meetings are sourced to unnamed people familiar with the situation. ×1Anyone hurt named or counted injuries described in clinical detail; the man is never named ×1
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Мишустин отметил устойчивость экономики России к внешним вызовам
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What we have measured
Actor label Calls Ukraine's president the head of a regime in the report's own voice. ×1Actor named names Ukraine's forces as the attacker of the town ×1Actor named Ukraine's armed forces are named outright as the side attacking the town ×1Actor named Names the organiser and says he is under arrest ×1
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