Washington Examiner reports a poll with Trump's approval up to 42%; a Hill headline says it has plunged 'into the 20s'

Two figures, one day. On 23 September the Washington Examiner reported a John Zogby Strategies poll that put President Trump's approval at 42%, up from 38% last month. Earlier that day a Hill headline said his approval "plunges into the 20s, and Republicans give up". We hold that headline but not the text beneath it.

	Washington Examiner	The Hill
Approval	42%, up from 38%	"into the 20s"
Poll named	John Zogby Strategies	none in the headline
Who was asked	1,007 likely midterm voters	not known to us
Margin of error	not given	not known to us
Generic ballot	Democratic lead down from 9 points to 6	not known to us

The Examiner carries its own counterweight. It cites an Economist/YouGov poll with Democrats 14 points ahead and a RealClearPolitics average of 8.3 points. It also cites Kalshi, a prediction market, which gives Democrats a 91% chance of taking the House. Then it asks whether the Zogby poll is "an outlier".

The pollster explains his own result. Jeremy Zogby told the Examiner that independents look "concerned about the specter of socialism". The report shows no poll question on socialism, and it quotes no one in reply.

What is not settled - Which poll The Hill's figure comes from, and whether it counts adults, registered voters or likely voters. - The Zogby poll's margin of error, field dates and method. The Examiner gives none of them. - Which figure is nearer the truth. Nothing we hold settles it.

What this is about. Two news reports give very different numbers for how many Americans approve of President Donald Trump. They come weeks before an election that will decide who controls Congress.

How it got here. Trump, a Republican, began his second term as president on 20 January 2025. Republicans hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The midterm elections fall on 3 November 2026. Every House seat is on the ballot, along with about a third of the Senate. The president is not on the ballot himself. But midterms are widely read as a verdict on him, and the president's party has usually lost seats in them.

The Washington Examiner describes a hard autumn for Republicans. Diesel is "way above $6 per gallon", there is "no end in sight to the war in Iran", and forecasters keep predicting a Democratic "blue wave".

Who the actors are. Pollsters such as John Zogby Strategies and Economist/YouGov survey samples of voters. An approval rating is the share of people who say they approve of the way the president is doing his job. The "generic ballot" asks which party a voter would back for Congress, without naming any candidates. Polling averages such as RealClearPolitics combine many polls. Prediction markets such as Kalshi let people bet on outcomes.

Why the method matters. Polls differ in who they ask: all adults, registered voters or likely voters. They also differ in how they ask, by phone or online. Every poll carries a margin of error. Two sound polls can differ by several points for these reasons alone. The gap between 42% and a figure in the 20s is far larger than that. That is why the poll behind each number matters.

What is at stake. If Democrats win either chamber, they can block the President's bills and open investigations into his administration.

Where it stands. The one poll we can read points up for the President. The one headline whose article we cannot read points sharply down.

What is being argued about

A John Zogby Strategies poll of 1,007 likely voters puts Trump's approval at 42%, up from 38%
A Hill headline says Trump's approval has fallen into the 20s, and names no poll we can see
The Democratic lead on the generic ballot: 6 points in Zogby, 14 in Economist/YouGov, 8.3 in the RealClearPolitics average
Whether the Zogby poll has caught a late swing to Republicans or is an outlier

Two approval figures, and what each report tells us about its pollSide by side

Outlet	Approval figure	Poll named	Sample	Margin of error
Washington Examiner	42%, up from 38% last month	John Zogby Strategies	1,007 likely midterm voters	not given
The Hill	"into the 20s"	none in the headline	not known to us	not known to us

We hold only the headline of The Hill's report. Its text may name a poll we cannot see.

Sources

Washington Examiner

The Hill

The bias in this coverageBias

One figure has a method, one has a headline

One report names the pollster, the sample and the month-on-month change. The other gives an approval figure in the 20s and names no poll that we can read. Neither report gives a margin of error.

1 reports naming the pollster 1 reports giving a sample size 0 reports giving a margin of error

The same report carries its own counterweight

The report on the 42% figure also cites a prediction market, a polling average and a second poll. All three point towards Democrats. It then asks whether its own poll is an outlier.

3 other measures cited in the 42% report 3 of those pointing towards Democrats

Scored without the mastheads. Where the two passes differ, both are kept.

Sources

Washington Examiner

The Hill

Claims and verdicts

unverified A John Zogby Strategies poll found 42% of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance, up from 38% last month.

Only the Washington Examiner reports this poll, with a sample of 1,007 likely midterm voters and no margin of error given. No other report we hold confirms or challenges the figure.

Checked against 1 source:

Washington Examiner

disputed Trump's approval rating has fallen into the 20s.

The claim appears only in a Hill headline, and we do not hold the article's text, the poll behind it or its method. The Zogby poll reported by the Washington Examiner puts approval at 42%, and a different poll could explain the gap, but nothing we hold settles which figure is right.

Checked against 2 sources:

The Hill

Washington Examiner

unverified Republicans narrowed the Democrats' generic-ballot lead from 9 points to 6.

This is the Zogby poll as reported by the Washington Examiner, and it is the only account we hold. The same article reports an Economist/YouGov poll giving Democrats a 14-point lead and a RealClearPolitics average of 8.3, and asks whether Zogby is an outlier.

Checked against 1 source:

Washington Examiner

Who wrote it

R Rob Crilly Washington Examiner

What the bias passes found in their reporting

Accusation printed unanswered a named candidate is accused of responsibility for murders, with no response carried×1

Asserted, not attributed A claim about what voters are hearing is written in the report's own voice.×1

Asserted not attributed A contributor states a foreign endorsement as fact, with no source×1

Claim stated flat An Iranian endorsement of Democrats is asserted with no source×1

Claims we checked that rest on their reporting

1 disputed11 unverified2 true

From 36 reports we hold under this byline, at Washington Examiner. Two independent readings, each made without the masthead, a quote attached to every tag. A record, never a rating. Their full record →

M Max Burns The Hill

What the bias passes found in their reporting

Figure with no method the headline gives a range and a verdict; no poll, pollster or sample is visible×1

Headline with no poll named The headline gives a figure in the 20s but names no poll. We hold no body text for this report.×1

Claims we checked that rest on their reporting

1 disputed

From 10 reports we hold under this byline, at The Hill, MSNBC. Two independent readings, each made without the masthead, a quote attached to every tag. A record, never a rating. Their full record →

The bylines on the reports this story is built from. Hover one for what our passes have measured on their reporting.

Coverage, outlet by outlet

Washington Examiner — independent

Poll offers ray of midterm hope for Republicans as Trump’s rating bounces back

The only report that names a pollster, a sample and a change from last month. It is also the only one that sets other polls against its own and asks whether its poll is an outlier.

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE. Today, we bring out the rarely used “good news for Republicans” midterm klaxon. Plus, we ask which luxury-loving politician was spotted slumming it in economy on the way back from the United Nations. And which Democrat was stoking 2028 speculation in D.C. on Tuesday evening? Donald Trump’s approval ratings are bouncing back, and Republicans are closing the gap on Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, according to a new poll by John Zogby Strategies. Recommended Stories Pol

Framing before the figures: the report tells readers the news is good for one party before it gives the numbers — “Today, we bring out the rarely used “good news for Republicans” midterm klaxon.”

Method partly given: sample size and population are given; margin of error and survey mode are not — “The poll of 1,007 likely midterm voters”

Pollster interprets own poll: the pollster explains the movement, and no question on socialism is shown — ““And the movement we see now, it looks like more Independents are concerned about the specter of socialism,” he said.”

Claim with no source: a claim about what voters hear is stated flat, with no poll behind it — “Voters aren’t hearing much beyond Democrats’ criticism of Trump and have yet to hear a clear, coherent strategy for bringing down prices.”

Other evidence included: the report sets its poll against a poll pointing the other way — “The latest Economist/YouGov poll, published Tuesday, gave Democratic candidates a 14-point lead over Republicans.”

Framing before the figure: The report sets up the poll as good news for one party before it gives any number. — “Today, we bring out the rarely used “good news for Republicans” midterm klaxon.”

Method partly given: The report gives the sample size and the population surveyed. It gives no margin of error and no dates the poll was taken. — “The poll of 1,007 likely midterm voters stands as a rare ray of hope for Republicans”

Pollster's reading unchallenged: The pollster explains his own result in partisan terms, and no one else is quoted in reply. — “it looks like more Independents are concerned about the specter of socialism”

Asserted, not attributed: A claim about what voters are hearing is written in the report's own voice. — “Voters aren’t hearing much beyond Democrats’ criticism of Trump and have yet to hear a clear, coherent strategy for bringing down prices.”

Counter figure given: The report sets a poll that points the other way beside its lead poll. — “The latest Economist/YouGov poll, published Tuesday, gave Democratic candidates a 14-point lead over Republicans.”

Read it at Washington Examiner → https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/4736530/poll…

The Hill — independent

Trump’s approval plunges into the 20s, and Republicans give up

The only report that puts Trump's approval "into the 20s" and says Republicans "give up". We hold its headline, not its text.

Figure with no method: the headline gives a range and a verdict; no poll, pollster or sample is visible — “Trump’s approval plunges into the 20s, and Republicans give up”

Headline with no poll named: The headline gives a figure in the 20s but names no poll. We hold no body text for this report. — “Trump’s approval plunges into the 20s, and Republicans give up”

Read it at The Hill → https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/6104722-trump-approval-low-gop/

Checked, didn’t cover

Mother Jones

Reuters N NPR P Politico T The Washington Post

Fox News

Breitbart

MSNBC

The New York Times

National Review

Silence is recorded, not inferred — each of these was read when we built this story and carried nothing on this event.

We could not read these

The Wall Street Journal

Associated Press

These are must-cite outlets for this desk that we did not manage to read when we built this story. That is a gap in our reach, not a silence on their part, and it is not evidence of anything about this story.

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Washington Examiner reports a poll with Trump's approval up to 42%; a Hill headline says it has plunged 'into the 20s'

What is being argued about

One figure has a method, one has a headline

The same report carries its own counterweight

Claims and verdicts

Who wrote it

Coverage, outlet by outlet