JNS says the Houthis took an island, Life.ru says every key town, iDNES says 'apparently' — and Interfax says Iran led it

What is claimed. Three reports say the Houthis now hold ground at Bab al-Mandeb. They differ on how much they hold. They also differ on how sure they are.

Who is acting. iDNES.cz carries the Houthis' own terms: they said on Wednesday the strait is safe for every ship except Saudi ones. Interfax relays the UAE paper The National, which says Iran's Revolutionary Guard directed the offensive. The National cites unnamed Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources.

What it costs. Shargh reports that Egypt's foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, says Suez Canal losses from the disruption have reached $11bn. No other report we hold gives a money figure.

Who else spoke. Reuters reports that India's prime minister told Iran's president that navigation must be protected. It does not say from whom.

What is not settled. - Whether the Houthis hold the strait. No report confirms it independently, and none disputes it. - What the $11bn counts — lost revenue or something else — and over what period. Shargh does not say. - Whether Iran directed the offensive. One report carries it, second-hand. - Freight rates, insurance and crews. No report we hold counts them.

What this is about. A rebel movement that already controls much of Yemen is reported to have taken the land on either side of the sea lane that links Asia to Europe, and to have closed it to one country's ships.

How it got here. Bab al-Mandeb is the narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It joins the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, and the Red Sea runs north to the Suez Canal, the Egyptian waterway opened in 1869 and run by the Egyptian state since 1956. Ships between Asia and Europe pass through both, or sail round southern Africa instead — weeks longer. Egypt is paid for every transit, in foreign currency.

The Houthis, a movement from Yemen's north, took the capital Sanaa in 2014 and the internationally recognised government fled. In March 2015 a coalition led by Saudi Arabia went to war against them. That war has not ended. From late 2023 the Houthis attacked shipping in the Red Sea, saying they acted over Israel's war in Gaza that followed the attacks of 7 October 2023; the United States and Britain struck Houthi targets from January 2024, and much of the world's shipping left the route. We reported on 8 September that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had seized a US underwater drone, and on 9 September that France 24 said Iran had struck more than a dozen vessels.

Who is in it. The Houthis hold the Yemeni coast in question. Saudi Arabia is the party whose ships they have barred. Iran is the Houthis' principal foreign backer; how far Tehran directs them is disputed, and the reports here disagree about it. Egypt loses money when ships avoid the canal. India, a large user of the route, has raised navigation with Tehran.

What is at stake. If the strait is genuinely held and selectively closed, one armed movement decides which flags pass between Europe and Asia.

Where it stands. Unconfirmed. Nobody independent has verified who holds the ground.