Iran says it will strike back only if attacked; Trump says Iran's leaders face being wiped out without a deal, and Hormuz stays shut
Eight reports cover the standoff, and every threat in them comes with a condition. Each outlet puts that condition on the other side. None of them spells out what Iran wants before it reopens the strait.
The strait is shut. Arutz Sheva reports that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. In An-Nahar, Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, says gas prices in Europe will keep rising if it stays closed. He puts them at about $160 in oil-equivalent terms.
Every threat comes with a condition.
| Outlet | Who speaks | The threat | The condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asharq Al-Awsat | Revolutionary Guard | new targets | if the US attacks |
| Asharq Al-Awsat, citing Reuters | Trump | Iran fails economically or its leadership is wiped out | if it makes no deal |
| Asharq Al-Awsat, citing Reuters | Iranian military | harsh retaliation | any fresh attack |
| IRNA (state agency) | Army chief Amir Hatami | "decisive and regret-inducing response" | any aggression |
| Arutz Sheva | Iran | the strait stays closed | until its demands are met |
| Arutz Sheva | President Pezeshkian | will not bow to pressure | none stated |
| Shargh | Guard spokesman | the war "is not over yet" | none in the text we hold |
Iran is heard directly. The US is not. 6 of 8 reports carry an Iranian official or military body. Only 1 carries Trump's words, and it paraphrases them in a report about the gold price. Both of our readings of the coverage found this.
What is not settled - What Iran is demanding. Only Arutz Sheva mentions demands. It does not list them or say who set them. Neither IRNA nor Shargh carries them in the text we hold. - Whether the US will strike. Arutz Sheva says only that Trump "weighs military action". - Who struck Ras Laffan in March. An-Nahar does not say.
This story is about a narrow sea lane that Iran has closed, and a standoff over whether Tehran or Washington moves first.
How it got here. In 2015 Iran agreed with world powers to limit its nuclear programme in return for relief from sanctions. In 2018, in his first term, Donald Trump took the United States out of that deal and brought sanctions back. Iran then expanded its uranium enrichment. Tension between Iran and Israel sharpened during the war in Gaza that followed the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. In June 2025 Israel and Iran fought a short war, and on 22 June the United States bombed Iranian nuclear sites. In September 2025 UN sanctions on Iran were reimposed after Britain, France and Germany triggered the 2015 deal's "snapback" clause.
The reports we hold cover what came next only in part. An-Nahar reports strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas complex in March and does not say who carried them out. Arutz Sheva reports the strait closed. A Revolutionary Guard spokesman tells Shargh the war is not over. None of our reports says when the strait was closed.
The actors. - Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian leads the elected government. The regular army and the Revolutionary Guard are separate forces, and the Guard answers to the Supreme Leader. - The United States. Trump has been back in office since January 2025. - Qatar. Qatar shares its largest gas field with Iran and ships its liquefied gas out through the strait. An-Nahar calls QatarEnergy the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. - Europe. Europe buys that gas.
What is at stake. The strait is the only sea route out of the Gulf. Oil and gas from the Gulf states and from Iran pass through it. If it stays shut, Qatar's minister expects European gas prices to keep rising into winter. If the US attacks, Iran's commanders promise a response.
Where it stands. The strait is closed. Iran's commanders say they will act only if attacked. Trump, as Reuters reports him in Asharq Al-Awsat, says Iran must make a deal.
The story so far
- Iran says Washington is preparing to attack; Trump says "this week is no different" · 20 Sep 2026
- CENTCOM says Iran exported no oil; An-Nahar calls it a claim, LBCI runs its figures as the admiral's own words · 19 Sep 2026
- Jerusalem Post says imagery shows Iran rebuilding a 'bomb testing' site; Al-Modon says an Israeli daily contradicts Netanyahu's bomb claim · 18 Sep 2026
- UN News carries the Iran inquiry's findings on Washington and Tehran; Shargh's opening carries only Washington's · 18 Sep 2026
Earlier stories The AI Times filed on this thread.
What is being argued about
- Iran's condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which none of the reports lists
- Revolutionary Guard and army warnings of a response to any US attack
- Trump's warning that Iran fails or its leadership is wiped out without a deal
- The price of European gas while the strait stays closed
Claims and verdicts
Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions
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Read it at Arutz Sheva →
What we have measured
A caveat kept in the only report we hold that says the rejection was of a promo, not the finished film ×1A different word, and a hedge Calls the same event an airstrike rather than a controlled demolition, and marks it "Reported" while offering footage as its evidence. ×1An allegation stated as established the headline presents the plan as fact and as a disclosure, with no attribution to the charge sheet ×1Asserted flat Calls it a 'terror network' and says Iran helped build it, in its own voice, with no source. ×1
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Iran's Guards Threaten to Hit New Targets if US Attacks
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Read it at Asharq Al-Awsat →
What we have measured
Active voice, both actors named the killing of Iran's supreme leader is given an actor and a date, unhedged ×1Active voice for the actor soldiers and settlers are both named as acting ×1Anyone hurt is counted, not named three dead given as a figure and a job title ×1Are the hurt named or counted The dead man and the wounded are a count inside an official's quote; nobody is named, and no ages, roles or nationalities are given. ×1
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A
Asharq Al-Awsat
Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook
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Read it at Asharq Al-Awsat →
What we have measured
Active voice, both actors named the killing of Iran's supreme leader is given an actor and a date, unhedged ×1Active voice for the actor soldiers and settlers are both named as acting ×1Anyone hurt is counted, not named three dead given as a figure and a job title ×1Are the hurt named or counted The dead man and the wounded are a count inside an official's quote; nobody is named, and no ages, roles or nationalities are given. ×1
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Shargh
Shargh
🇮🇷IR ·
newspaper · independent
Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions
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Read it at Arutz Sheva →
What we have measured
A caveat kept in the only report we hold that says the rejection was of a promo, not the finished film ×1A different word, and a hedge Calls the same event an airstrike rather than a controlled demolition, and marks it "Reported" while offering footage as its evidence. ×1An allegation stated as established the headline presents the plan as fact and as a disclosure, with no attribution to the charge sheet ×1Asserted flat Calls it a 'terror network' and says Iran helped build it, in its own voice, with no source. ×1
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Who wrote it
Coverage, outlet by outlet
Shargh
Shargh
🇮🇷IR ·
newspaper · independent
Shargh
Shargh
🇮🇷IR ·
newspaper · independent
Iran's Guards Threaten to Hit New Targets if US Attacks
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Asharq Al-Awsat →
What we have measured
Active voice, both actors named the killing of Iran's supreme leader is given an actor and a date, unhedged ×1Active voice for the actor soldiers and settlers are both named as acting ×1Anyone hurt is counted, not named three dead given as a figure and a job title ×1Are the hurt named or counted The dead man and the wounded are a count inside an official's quote; nobody is named, and no ages, roles or nationalities are given. ×1
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—
Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Asharq Al-Awsat →
What we have measured
Active voice, both actors named the killing of Iran's supreme leader is given an actor and a date, unhedged ×1Active voice for the actor soldiers and settlers are both named as acting ×1Anyone hurt is counted, not named three dead given as a figure and a job title ×1Are the hurt named or counted The dead man and the wounded are a count inside an official's quote; nobody is named, and no ages, roles or nationalities are given. ×1
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—
Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions
Open this report in The AI Times →
Read it at Arutz Sheva →
What we have measured
A caveat kept in the only report we hold that says the rejection was of a promo, not the finished film ×1A different word, and a hedge Calls the same event an airstrike rather than a controlled demolition, and marks it "Reported" while offering footage as its evidence. ×1An allegation stated as established the headline presents the plan as fact and as a disclosure, with no attribution to the charge sheet ×1Asserted flat Calls it a 'terror network' and says Iran helped build it, in its own voice, with no source. ×1
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—
Pezeshkian: We don’t want war but will not yield to pressure
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Read it at Arutz Sheva →
What we have measured
A caveat kept in the only report we hold that says the rejection was of a promo, not the finished film ×1A different word, and a hedge Calls the same event an airstrike rather than a controlled demolition, and marks it "Reported" while offering footage as its evidence. ×1An allegation stated as established the headline presents the plan as fact and as a disclosure, with no attribution to the charge sheet ×1Asserted flat Calls it a 'terror network' and says Iran helped build it, in its own voice, with no source. ×1
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—
Haaretz
Haaretz
🇮🇱IL ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
A previous framing corrected the twelve-country statement described as ambiguously worded ×1Asserted flat The report states as fact that barring Arab parties is a standing ritual. ×1Asserted flat The report says ethnicity explains the different outcomes, in its own voice. ×1Asserted in the report's own voice Parties are characterised by what they are said to promise, unattributed, and the headline calls the result frightening. ×1
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Palestine TV · Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation
Palestine TV · Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation
🇵🇸PS ·
TV/radio · state-controlled
What we have measured
Asserted versus attributed recognition itself stated as fact ×1Attribution 'historic' attributed to the Palestinian ambassador ×1Dead counted, not named two dead are counted as 'citizens' and none are named; the wounded are not counted ×1Dead named Gives the dead man's full name and age. ×1
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Ynet
Ynet
🇮🇱IL ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
A claim in the headline that the other reports very close to deciding the regime appears in one report only ×1Active voice The killers are the subject of the verbs 'beat' and 'burned'. ×1Active voice The killers are named as acting ×1Army's term, attributed the army names the target of its strikes, and no one on the other side is quoted ×1
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Al-Monitor
Al-Monitor
🇺🇸US/ME ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Actor from anonymous officials Puts the IRGC at the trigger in a sentence sourc ×1Actor named Names the Director-General as the one who requested the dismissal ×1Actor named names Trump as the one who began the war, with Israel ×1Actor named names Israel as the actor in its military actions against the Palestinians ×1
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Tehran Times
Tehran Times
🇮🇷IR ·
newspaper · state-controlled
What we have measured
Asserted vs attributed headline states the seizure flat; the body attributes it to the claimant ×1Attribution the toll is attributed to a body that is described but not named ×1Headline against body headline states the seizure flat; the body attributes it to the IRGC ×1How the objectors are framed opposition is described as protesters speaking for civilians ×1
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Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
🇶🇦QA ·
TV/radio · state-funded international
What we have measured
Accusation attributed Cuba's charge is attributed to its foreign minister, not stated as fact ×1Actor named The headline names Israel as the actor and gives a count of three that includes a child. ×1Agency No actor is named for the detentions. The raids, not the soldiers, 'left' the town in lockdown ×1Agency Names Israel as the actor in the headline, in active voice ×1
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LBCI (Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International)
LBCI (Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International)
🇱🇧LB ·
TV/radio · independent
What we have measured
Active voice, actor named the Israeli army carried out the detonation ×1Actor framing Tehran calls the meeting. Iraq is the only other state named. ×1Actor left unnamed the strike in Iraqi waters has no one named as firing it — the source is "unknown" ×1Actor named names Israel as the one striking ×1
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The Times of Israel
The Times of Israel
🇮🇱IL ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
Actorless in own voice The killing is passive with no shooter in the se ×1Headline carries the purpose The livestock and the army's reason are in the h ×1Headline frame The headline carries the military's word for the ×1Military words carried whole Both the label for the dead and the phrase for t ×1
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A
Al-Sabaah
Ma'an News Agency
Ma'an News Agency
🇵🇸PS ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
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Al-Mada
Al-Mada
🇮🇶IQ ·
newspaper · independent
What we have measured
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North Press Agency
North Press Agency
🇸🇾SY ·
wire · independent
What we have measured
Attribution the damage list is carried in full, attributed to the side claiming it ×1Single official source Uses the Saudi Press Agency's account: 'bilateral relations', with no mention of reconstruction or money. ×1What is at stake presents the stakes as trade and energy security; no ship, crew or price is counted ×1Which line is led with led by the legal instrument, naming the Security Council resolution by number ×1
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WAFA · Palestinian News & Information Agency
WAFA · Palestinian News & Information Agency
🇵🇸PS ·
state agency · state-controlled
What we have measured
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Al-Manar
Al-Manar
🇱🇧LB ·
TV/radio · independent
What we have measured
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Middle East Eye
Middle East Eye
🇬🇧UK ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
How hard the claim is stated Its own body says the investigators did not attribute the network to the Emirati state — the qualification its headline drops. ×1How hard the claim is stated The body withdraws in one line the attribution its own headline makes ×1How deeply it is sourced Cites its own past reporting as the evidence for the claim in its own headline, and calls the evidence widespread in its own voice ×1How deeply it is sourced Offers its own past reporting as the evidence supporting the claim in its headline, inside the same sentence that carries the denial. ×1
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Ammon News
Ammon News
🇯🇴JO ·
digital · independent
What we have measured
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